Polling, if done objectively can be a good indicator. But, let’s face it. Polling costs money. Grassroots candidates cannot afford “official” polling. The crafting of the questions can elicit the desired answers hoped for.
Polling can be funded by the candidates themselves and then circulated to influence the public. It’s about snatching the “First Impression”.
Polling is one way to influence the public. It can exploit the tendency for the Everyman to accept and support perceived “winners”. People could then gravitate to the perceived “winners” to obtain or maintain favors or jobs or contracts or social status and so on.
But, polling can be elusive. Here’s an example of the 2018 Gubernatorial race between David Ige and Colleen Hanabusa. Hanabusa did her own polling as advertised on May 25, 2018.
” The poll was conducted by Qmark Research of Honolulu from April 21 to May 7, 2018. It included registered voters with a history and likelihood of voting in the 2018 Democratic Primary Election to be held on August 11, 2018. It should be noted that the study period of this survey began after the Ige campaign had begun its TV advertising and was completed before the Hanabusa campaign TV advertising was launched.
RACE FOR GOVERNOR
In the poll, registered voters who indicated a likelihood of selecting the Democratic Ballot in the upcoming primary election were asked which of the top candidates for governor they would likely support if the election were held today. It showed Colleen Hanabusa holds a greater than 2:1 advantage over the incumbent David Ige, 52% to 23%.”
The Real 2018 Primary Elections Results
Governor David Ige won the Primary Elections. with 50.2% to Hanabusa’s 43.4%.
What happened to Hanabusa’s earlier polled 29% point lead over Ige?
2022 Primary Election Poll
Fast forward to July 6, 2022. Civil Beat, an online news media, and Hawaii News Now announced their polling results. ( The costs are not disclosed.)
“ According to a new Civil Beat/Hawaii News Now poll, Green has 48% of the vote compared to U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele with 16% and businesswoman Vicky Cayetano with 15%.
Nearly one-fifth of those polled (22%) say they are not sure who they will vote for. But of the 782 likely Democratic primary voters surveyed, nearly half want to see Green elevated to the governorship.“
Some public sentiments from the same polling reveals interesting mind processes:
” Melanie Kealii Pualani Hiram-Broad, 47, a small-business owner in Hauula, also trusts Green’s experience as a doctor and leader in the state through the pandemic.
But Gail Tagashira, a retired woman from Ala Moana, supports Cayetano not Green.
“Because of Green’s campaign finances, he has taken dirty money to me. And I’m not really sure if he has the ability to get legislative bills influenced.”
“I think Cayetano and Sylvia Luke would be a good team as far as legislative duties go,” she said.“
The Big Question
Which of the three Democratic Gubernatorial candidates will win this Primary? Will Vicky Cayetano or Kai Kahele repeat the 2018 Polling failure?
The winner of this Democratic Primary will become the Governor of Hawaii for the next 4 years.
Will voters dig deeper into the persona branding created by “Doctor Green” as the “trusted caring leadership”? Or question the doctor’s list of big corporate donations here and from the mainland? Below is a meme from a Facebook post:
Will voters dig deeper into the persona branding created by “Dr. Green” as the “trusted caring leadership” and question his PAY TO PLAY record?
